More Than a Feeling

Okay, I know that I missed last week's picks. I would've gone 4-0. Of course I would've. There's no evidence to the contrary... really, I would've picked Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego, and Minnesota last week. So 2-2. We're going to do better than that, though. I'm striving for perfection here.

Before I get to my thoughts about the upcoming weekend's slate of games, I have a couple of random thoughts about the week that was.

- Florida beat Oklahoma for the "National Championship."

If you want to call it that. Look, we kinda knew that Florida was going to beat Oklahoma (at least I did). The speed that Florida has is pretty incredible. Percy Harvin is a stunning athlete. He's probably going to be the second receiver off the board in April, and he deserves to be. Urban Meyer has designed that spread offense to get Percy Harvin the ball in 20 or 30 different ways, and even when you know it's coming, it's hard to stop. Even running at 80% last night, Harvin was the best player on the field. That includes Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford. And Harvin's not even the fastest guy on that team. Oklahoma hasn't played a team with THAT amount of speed and skill all season. Their defense hasn't been that great, either. Florida, meanwhile, brings it on defense as well. Maybe Oklahoma had a shot if DeMarco Murray was on the field. But he wasn't, and he's the closest thing to a Percy Harvin that Oklahoma has.

So it was pretty obvious that it was going to be a high-scoring, 62-41 affair, or something ridiculous like that. Think Oklahoma - Oklahoma State, but flip the script a bit.

No one expected Florida to win 24-14. And in all fairness, it was a semi-entertaining game. The game was contested throughout. Oklahoma kept it close. They bottled up Tebow for most of the game. Neither quarterback looked great. Bradford killed OU down the stretch. And Bob Stoops, probably the most overrated college coach, failed to make any adjustments whatsoever. Urban Meyer, one of the better college coaches (and not just at recruiting... the guy wins wherever he goes), made the adjustments at halftime. That was pretty much the game right there.

Keep something in mind, too. Tim Tebow didn't win the game for Florida. If I have to listen to one more fluff piece about Tim Tebow's drive and desire to win, I'm going to vomit. I get it. He's a fierce competitor. He's a leader. He also threw two picks against Oklahoma yesterday that came by him trying to force things. Percy Harvin did as much to win that game as Tebow did, and he's getting an eighth of the credit.

What sticks the wrong way for me is that this shouldn't have even BEEN the National Championship game. Utah deserves to be included. I know they're a Mountain West team. I know they "don't play anyone" like Florida does. But Utah beat TCU, Bringham Young, and Alabama. All three of those teams were ranked at the time, and ranked in the top-15. They also knocked off Oregon State (who handed USC their lone loss and was a game away from going to the Rose Bowl), Michigan in Ann Arbor, Air Force (a bowl team), and Colorado State (another bowl team). They beat Alabama more soundly than Florida did. The score may look close, but Alabama was in contention against Florida in the fourth quarter, and even led the game during the third. Alabama was trailing 21-0 after three possessions against Utah. No other team finished 13-0, and not many other teams had Utah's resume. This wasn't a typical weak non-BCS schedule. They played three ranked teams, and three other bowl teams.

What does this prove? It's impossible to win a National Championship if you don't play in the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10. That's not particularly the level playing field we hope for in college athletics (one of the things that makes college basketball pretty outstanding). Utah's state attorney general is looking at an antitrust lawsuit against the BCS, and even though I'm rather certain that it'll never make it to court or get squashed soundly if it gets there, they have a valid point. And perhaps it's the beginning of the groundswell needed to make the necessary change.

- Browns hire Eric Mangini to be their head coach.

Thank you, Cleveland, for totally screwing the pooch (pun intended) on this one. Think about how ass-backwards this was for a moment. Randy Lerner, owner of the Browns, hired Mangini without hiring a GM first. The General Manager's job is to do these sorts of things. They've got a generally (we're excepting Matt Millen here) keen eye for what it takes to run a football team. After all, in general, they're football guys. Randy Lerner isn't. What he's done is forced a General Manager to come in with a coach that he doesn't necessarily want and absolutely didn't sign off on. That has to make for a solid feeling of control and trust there.

And we're not even discussing the merits of Eric Mangini himself, which after the disaster that was the last month and a half of the New York Jets' 2008 season seem scant. Mangini was 23-26 as a head coach in New York. Sure, he took the 2006 Jets to the playoffs. The 2007 Jets, however, were a disaster. The 2008 Jets had the talent, especially after Tom Brady went down in week 1, to win the AFC East. And they were poised to do so, sitting pretty at 8-3. After a 1-4 finish, the Jets watched Miami and New England go right on by them. Full blame doesn't go on Mangini for it, because in all fairness Brett Favre played like dog shit down the stretch. Some of the blame goes there, though. When you're the captain of a sinking ship, you're pretty much forced into taking responsibility for it. Here's the thing, though: what exactly did Mangini do to convince ANYONE that he should be the first coach off the carousel? Lerner said that he was blown away by Mangini in his interview (that should have never happened in the first place). Really? Eric Mangini has the personality of a Popsicle stick. His offense isn't exactly dynamic. His defenses (keep in mind that Mangini was a defensive coordinator) were poor to slightly above average while in New York. And didn't Cleveland just have a ton of luck hiring a former defensive coordinator under Bill Belichick with Romeo Crennel? Nothing about this move made sense.

- Mark Teixeira wore a Yankees cap to Orioles games growing up...

... according to his press conference introducing him to the New York media. Yeah, screw you too, buddy.

On to the picks! (Home teams are in caps)

Ravens (+3) over TITANS

I'm not picking this way because I'm a biased homer. Really. I swear to God. Okay, maybe a little. I'm far from the only person picking this way, though. So if I'm wrong, we all go down together.

I get why people are picking Tennessee. Tennessee's had 13 days off, and the importance of that can't be understated. Couple that with Baltimore not having a week off since WEEK 2. The defense looked tired last week down the stretch. The Dolphins were moving the ball surprisingly well in the fourth quarter once they started going no-huddle and hitting short passes (and why NO ONE else figures this out any earlier than the fourth quarter besides Indy is beyond me). So there are definite factors to consider here, and the case can easily be made for Tennessee.

The thing is, that's really the way that the Ravens like it. I promise you, unfounded or not, this team runs the "No one respects us" angle into the ground. Think the team is upset that Harbaugh and Flacco didn't get any consideration in their Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year races respectively? This team plays best when they play with a chip on their shoulder. They have one. While Tennessee won the earlier meeting 13-10 in Baltimore, it was a game that the Ravens largely dominated. They were able to run the ball, and Tennessee found little success running the ball on Baltimore. That's not going to change. One team this season has been able to run on the Ravens. Tennessee's not going to break that trend. Especially not with Kevin Mawae likely out. The impact of that injury has been largely understated, so let me try to over-blow it. Mawae is one of the more athletic centers in the league. He's one of maybe three or four that are able to get outside and pull on a sweep or counter. That's essential for a guy like Chris Johnson to be able to gash the Ravens defense where it's actually vulnerable (outside the hash marks). Mawae is a 15-year veteran who's pretty much seen it all. Few things are surprising, to include the Ravens' controlled chaos defense. Leroy Harris, his back-up, is a 2nd year player who, it stands to reason, will have a much harder time with the Ravens' defense than Mawae would. Yes, I understand that Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosh will be back for this game, and that's great for Tennessee. But Mawae being out is pretty equivalent to either of those players being out. In fact, I think he might be more important to Tennessee's game.

Joe Flacco was instrumental in letting Tennessee back in the game in the first match-up. He threw two interceptions that game, and neither of them were on intelligent passes. They came with Flacco rolling out of the pocket trying to make something happen. Flacco's gotten a lot better when rolling out, and has learned how to chuck the ball away instead of forcing it into a dangerous situation. That turnaround right there is a HUGE factor in this game. The fact that he's a rookie on the road is overblown. Flacco doesn't get rattled. He handles himself like a veteran under center. And he has that first playoff game butterflies thing already out of his system. Joey Porter said before their playoff game last week of Flacco: "He's not a rookie anymore. He was in 2008. It's 2009 now." That's a pretty good summary of how far he's progressed. The Ravens should be able to run the ball enough to catch the Titans off guard on some play-action passes. It'll be a tight game, clearly low-scoring, but the Ravens should do just enough to win. And I'm personally guaranteeing at least one interception of Kerry Collins.

Pick: Ravens 16, Titans 9

PANTHERS (-10) over Cardinals

I hate taking a team laying 10 points. Even at home. Even against the Cardinals. But I can't ignore this. Arizona has been disgustingly bad on the road, going 3-5 outside of their sorta-dome. They're playing the only team that went undefeated at home this season in Carolina. Arizona was 16th against the run while Carolina was the league's third best run team. Carolina did a solid job stopping the pass this season (16th, compared to Atlanta's 21st rating), so they match up better against Arizona than Atlanta did. Carolina also doesn't have a rookie QB under center (I know, this is going against everything I just said about Flacco, but there's a difference in their coolness and even-keelitude). And they're not going to rely on one back to get it done against Arizona. They have two, and they're both home run threats.

Arizona did a fantastic job of resurrecting Edgerrin James for last week's game to throw off Atlanta (who clearly didn't bother preparing to stop the run). Carolina's not going to be caught off guard by it. They're a balanced, well-coached, well-prepared team who's had a week off to game plan for a team that's completely one-dimensional, is terrible on the road, and will be without Anquan Boldin. If I'm missing something here, please let me know.

Pick: Carolina 38, Arizona 21

GIANTS (-4) over Eagles

I thought about taking Philly. I did. I thought about it for a good long while. It's quickly becoming the sexy pick this week. After all, Philly already beat New York in Giants Stadium earlier this year. So they should know what they're getting into. And they're very, very familiar with what New York brings to the table. Add in the fact that Donovan McNabb looked like Donovan McNabb against Minnesota last week, and signs seem to point to Philly being able to pull out the upset this week.

Don't be fooled. It's a trap. Remember the circumstances that Philly beat New York in earlier this season. This was the game right after Plaxico's shenanigans became a full-blown distraction. New York's head wasn't in that game. That's pretty obvious. And while McNabb looks like McNabb again, and Brian Westbrook was effective last week... let's remember that Philly was having a tough time with Minnesota before Westbrook broke that run. Minnesota's quarterback last week was Tarvaris Jackson. Philly was having a tough time against a team that was QUARTERBAKCED BY TARVARIS JACKSON. Sure, they have that Adrian Peterson guy, too. But if Jackson isn't doing everything short of ripping off his Vikings jersey to show an Eagles jersey underneath before grabbing a steel chair and laying out Peterson last week, Minnesota wins that game. Easily. Philly was stifled all game until Westbrook broke that screen play. And they were being stifled by a defense without Pat Williams in the middle and Darren Sharper at safety.

Also, do you REALLY trust Andy Reid on the road to out-coach Tom Coughlin? The same Tom Coughlin that coached circles around Bill Belichick last year in the Super Bowl? It's Andy Reid. C'mon.

Philly's got an underrated defense and should limit the damage that the three-headed monster at running back is able to do. But the coaching difference and home-field advantage is tilted so firmly in New York's direction that I can't, in good conscience, pick Philly to win this.

Pick: New York 24, Philadelphia 14

Chargers (+6) over STEELERS

This is the other game that I went back and forth on for a long, long while. Like the New York - Philly game though, I just couldn't bring myself to take the Steelers laying 6 points. I think they'll win the game, don't get me wrong, but they won't cover.

I really want to pick San Diego to win outright, though. But here's the thing: aside from the Tennessee game this year, when can you remember a game that Pittsburgh didn't get some ridiculous break to win them the game? They've been stunningly lucky (and good) this season. They get every break. Especially at home. And as good as San Diego looked last week, San Diego also looked pretty bad last week. They were able to run the ball on Indy, but that's not uncommon. Indy's rush defense was 24th in the league this year. Pittsburgh's? They're sitting at #2, giving up just 80.3 yards per game on the ground. And before you think Philip Rivers is going to beat the Steelers through the air, keep in mind that Pittsburgh had the league's best defense against the pass, allowing just 156.9 yards per game through the air. This isn't Indy's defense they're facing here. It's the best defense in the league.

I know that San Diego's defense kept Peyton Manning contained last week, but San Diego's defense ALWAYS plays well against Indy (look it up). In reality, the Chargers sport the second worst pass defense and the 11th best rush defense. Pittsburgh can move the ball on them and stop the Chargers both on the ground and through the air. Again, am I missing something?

Rivers had a ton of pressure on him last week from Freeney and Mathis. Harrison, Woodley, and company should be able to force Rivers into some quick and errant throws. What worries me about Pittsburgh is Roethlisberger's health. The guy had his third concussion just two weeks ago. And we're not even talking about his motorcycle accident in 2006. What happens if San Diego gets a good shot on him and knocks him out early? Willie Parker's been next to invisible all season. Pittsburgh's usually a fantastic running team, but they haven't been this season. If Roethlisberger gets knocked out or gets gun-shy, it's going to be on their defense to win the game for them. Pittsburgh's is probably the only defense outside of the Ravens' that's up to that task.

In their last game, Pittsburgh won by 1 point, but it wasn't that close. San Diego gave up a ton of yards. They just kept Pittsburgh out of the end zone. There's not really any reason to think that it's going to be a dramatically different affair this time. San Diego looked good in the upset last week because they match up with Indianapolis really well. They don't match-up nearly as well as Pittsburgh. I think this is another low-scoring affair, I think Scifres (who had the greatest game a punter has ever had, and I won't hear differently) has another big game, but ultimately I think they fall just short.

Pick: Pittsburgh 13, San Diego 12

Defense Does The Talking: Ravens 27 - Dolphins 9

During the regular season, Miami committed just 13 turnovers. That tied for the fewest amount of turnovers in a 16-game season in NFL history (with the 2008 New York Giants, amusingly enough). While that was impressive, it was a turnover that doomed the Dolphins during the Ravens' 27-13 victory in their Week 7 match-up.

This time, it wasn't a turnover that doomed Miami. It was five of them.

Chad Pennington was intercepted by the Ravens four times, twice by Ed Reed, as the Ravens systematically took apart the Dolphins in a 27-9 victory that should solidify the Ravens as a frightening team during the NFL's second season, despite their 6th seed. Reed returned one of those interceptions for a 64-yard touchdown (with no laterals involved, surprisingly enough) as the Dolphins looked completely out of sync offensively for most of the middle portion of the football game. It wasn't until the 4th quarter (shock) that the Dolphins began to move the football, but by then the Ravens had widened the gap more than enough. Ronnie Brown notched the only touchdown for the Dolphins with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter to cut the lead to 20-9 (after Frank Walker came from nowhere to block the extra point). After that, like the Dallas game, Willis McGahee broke a big run to pretty much seal the deal.

Otherwise, the defense completely diffused the Dolphins' attack. The wildcat offense that Miami likes to run was neutralized yet again. Chad Pennington took more shots than he's accustomed to. The Miami running game was shut down early. Ronnie Brown managed just 19 yards on 12 carries. Ricky Williams managed just 17 yards on 4 carries. That forced Miami to become fairly one-dimensional, which plays right into the Ravens' hands. The defense, aside from the aforementioned 4th quarter, did what they needed to do by keeping plays in front of them. Pennington's not going to torch you deep (pretty much the Ravens' only weakness on defense this year), so the key was to keep Miami's receivers to a limited number of yards after the catch. Once Miami started to fall behind and Pennington got pressured, he started to force throws into lanes that didn't exist. That caused two interceptions by Reed, one by Leonhard, and one by Fabian Washington. And of course, Ed Reed is the one guy that you DON'T want to throw an interception to. Because once he gets his hands on the ball, the odds of him taking it to the house are pretty high. He hit .500 in that aspect. Keep in mind that Pennington had thrown just 7 interceptions all SEASON. He threw 4 today. You expected the Ravens to force a turnover or two in this game. Not five (the other came on a fumble by Patrick Cobbs that also led to Baltimore points).

Credit has to go to Joe Flacco as well, even if he didn't have his best game statistically. 9/23 for 135 yards is pretty ugly. The important number for Flacco, though, was the zero interceptions. In fact, the Ravens committed just one turnover all game (Le'Ron McClain fumbled on the Ravens' opening drive, which led to a Miami field goal). Number five continues to show incredible pocket presence for a rookie as well. He's vastly improved that aspect of his game as the season's progressed. He has a solid feel for the rush now, and knows how to buy time both by moving in the pocket and rolling out to escape pressure. He's not as prone to throwing the ball into traffic when being chased. That's a huge development for Flacco. It was probably the aspect of his game that needed the most work, as can be expected for a rookie quarterback. But Flacco continues to show that he's a fast learner. A large number of his incompletions came from either missing on the deep ball or throwing the ball away on the run. There was only one poorly thrown ball, a rocket to Heap that would've been intercepted by Yeremiah Bell had Akin Ayodele not batted the ball down. Otherwise, Flacco made fantastic decisions with the football. Put this into perspective: Joe Flacco became just the third rookie quarterback to win a playoff game, joining Shaun King of Tampa Bay and Ben Roethlisberger of that team with the logo on one side of their helmets. But neither of those guys won that playoff game on the road. And neither of them started all 16 games during the regular season to get his team into the playoffs, either. Matt Ryan, who (deservedly) won the NFL's Rookie of the Year, got bounced in his first playoff game after throwing 2 INTs. Flacco has a better supporting cast, but his impact shouldn't be understated. And now that Ryan's watching the playoffs from his sofa, count on Flacco getting more coverage and credit over the next week.

Finally, the Ravens were able to win the game by running the ball. No surprise there. Through most of the second and third quarters, the Ravens were able to gash Miami's 10th ranked rush defense right up the middle. Jason Ferguson missed the first game against the Ravens, when Miami gave up 140 yards on the ground. His return was supposed to help shut down the Ravens' rushing attack. It didn't. This time, the Ravens rushed for 151 yards. It wasn't McGahee that did most of the damage; it was McClain that ground out 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, with Willis chipping in 62 yards on 7 carries including a 48-yard burst to set-up the Ravens' final touchdown and effectively ice the game. Flacco contributed the other touchdown with his feet on probably the best play call of the night. On third and goal from the 5, the Ravens split out three wide and ran a QB draw that put Flacco into the end zone and drove the score to 27-9. Overall, the Ravens out-rushed the Dolphins 151-52. That was pretty much the story of the game right there.

There are still things that need fixing for next week. The Ravens' 4th quarter defense still looks completely different from the defense that shows up for the other three quarters. The pass rush completely fell off. When he was given time, Pennington was effective. When he was hurried, he turned the ball over. The Ravens seemed to have forgotten that for a stretch early in the 4th quarter. The defense is still vulnerable to the hurry-up offense. If someone figures this out early, Baltimore's in trouble. This is why it's a GOOD thing that Indianapolis is gone from the playoffs. No one else runs the hurry-up as effectively as Peyton Manning does. It still stands as the biggest weakness in the league's #2 defense. The crazy thing is that it's been a weakness in the defense for a long, long time. No one but the Colts seems to want to take advantage of that. Also, while it's Flacco's job to not lose the game (basically, it's his job to be Trent Dilfer), he needs to improve his accuracy next week. It's going to be very, very difficult to run the ball on the Titans. Especially with Albert Haynesworth plugging up the middle. Flacco's going to have to help beat Tennessee. His two interceptions in that game, aside from a horrible call in the 4th quarter, pretty much sealed the Ravens' doom that game. So Flacco has to be more consistent in moving the ball down field while not turning the ball over. He's been able to do that during most of the second half of the season, and that's been the big difference between the 2-3 Ravens and the 11-5 Ravens.

Solid game all around, though. Here's my Better Than Mike Preston Report Card for the game:

Quarterbacks: C+

Flacco held onto the ball, which is what he was asked to do. He only made one or two ill-advised throws and was able to avoid and evade pressure through the game, evident by Miami's inability to sack him. He needs to be more accurate on his throws, especially with the deep ball. He overthrew Clayton twice on plays that would have, at the very least, been huge first downs.


Offensive line: B+

Flacco didn't take a sack all game. Part of that was his ability to move and avoid the rush. But to be fair, the offensive line was a huge part of that. They were able to limit the Dolphins' penetration and pretty much took Jason Ferguson and Joey Porter out of the game. 151 rushing yards on a 4.6 yards per carry average shows that the line was able to get a consistent push. The line still needs to cut down on the penalties.


Wide Receivers: C

Mason had his usual solid game with 4 catches for 71 yards, leading both teams. The rest of this unit was completely invisible. Heap had just one catch and dropped a touchdown pass in the first quarter. While Clayton's been huge over the last few weeks, he notched just 2 grabs for 16 yards and seemed to have trouble getting off the line of scrimmage.

Running Backs: A

They did what they were asked to do. McClain ground out his usual game by pounding out 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while wearing out the Dolphins' defense. That allowed McGahee to bust a big run late in the game that iced the game. That formula's worked well over the last three weeks or so. This unit has a huge task next week, but Ray Rice returning should help.

Defensive Line: B+

The line did a solid job of eating up Miami blockers while getting enough penetration to hurry Pennington into throws. For the most part, they kept containment and didn't allow Dolphins' runners to break to the outside. The unit looked winded in the fourth quarter as the pass rush fell apart. They also missed on some tackles in the backfield, and allowed Pennington to escape from a sack or two.


Linebackers: B+

This unit said hello to Chad Pennington quite a bit through the game. Suggs picked up a sack, but was in on hurries continuously. The Dolphins were held to 52 yards rushing, and this unit was a huge reason why. Bart Scott's hit on Pennington in the third quarter was absolutely punishing. They started to whiff on tackles down the stretch, and seemed to have a hard time pursuing Dolphins runners on screen passes.

Defensive Backs: B

This is a tough grade. Yes, they picked up 4 INTs. Reed had two of them, including the touchdown return. That should be an A+, right? Well, again, this unit had a hard time covering the Dolphins in the 4th quarter. Fabian Washington and Samari Rolle don't tackle well, and that continues to be an issue. Frank Walker got hit with a silly penalty late. There were a few pass interference penalties that were unnecessary down the stretch as well. The safeties played outstanding, the corners were mediocre. Thankfully, there's not a high-powered passing attack in the AFC. The corners aren't great, but they can match up with Tennessee, Pittsburgh, or San Diego's wide outs.


Special Teams: A

Can't complain at all about this unit. Stover was perfect on field goals (two for two). Koch had two punts downed in the 20, and only really botched one punt by putting it into the end zone. Steve Hauschka was launching bombs from his foot on kickoffs, putting each kick deep into the end zone. The Dolphins settled for touchbacks more often than not. The coverage team, especially on punts, has been much improved. They're still giving up too many yards on kick returns, but in general this unit kept Miami from getting good field position throughout.

Fistbumps is back?

Yeah, it is. Okay, I know I went on hiatus a while ago. Like, July. And I'm not even going to pretend that I had some good reason to suspend it. I did my thing at Orioles Hangout, then the Orioles got painful to watch, then yeah... just lost interest for a while. But I'm going to try to actually do this the right way again. Because, mostly, it gives me something to do.

In all fairness, I never said WHEN Fistbumps would return. Just that it would. So in reality, I didn't lie. See? Loopholes are fun.

I'll be writing some stuff about the Ravens playoff game in the next day or so. I'll probably comment on the playoff games as a whole. You'll also get a Bill Simmons-like prediction column for next weekend's game. Because honestly, there's nothing better than plagiarism.

So yes, Fistbumps is back. For now. Hopefully for good, but one can never tell. You keep reading, I'll keep trying to pump out content. Or something resembling it.