I Have a Worse Feeling...: Orioles vs. Angels

Remember where I said that I had a bad feeling about the Toronto series, and that I'd be thrilled with a series split, and then we went out and lost 3 out of 4?

Yeah. I've got a much, much worse feeling about this series.

The Los Angeles Angels of the Greater Orange County Metropolitan Area are coming into town for a 3-game set to end the 11-game homestand, and they're bringing with them the best record in the Major Leagues at 62-39. They also have the Majors' best road record at at 31-18. It's actually better than their 31-24 home record. I'm not making this shit up. They're really good.

Surprisingly enough, they're only 10th in the AL in runs scored, with 448 on the season. Their pitching is 6th in the AL with a 3.85 staff ERA. The starters are 3rd in the AL with a 3.79 ERA, while the pen is 10th with a 3.99 ERA. The O's, by the way, are 6th in runs scored and 12th in team ERA. So obviously, the pitching is severely slanted in the Angels' favor.

And before you get sick of hearing this a lot over the next three games, let me just warn you. The announcers are going to gush about the "pesky" Angels and their ability to "manufacture runs." And they're going to say that that's how they're winning their games... with their tenacity and heart. They're winning games because the pitchers are really good.

Anyway, here's the ridiculously unfair pitching matchups.

Pitching Matchups:

LHP Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.05 ERA) vs. LHP Brian Burres (7-6, 5.02 ERA)

RHP Jon Garland (8-6, 4.12 ERA) vs. RHP Radhames Liz (4-2, 7.19 ERA)

RHP Ervin Santana (11-4, 3.37 ERA) vs. LHP Garrett Olson (6-5, 6.11 ERA)

That's right. The average ERA for the three O's starters in this series is 6.10. For the Angels? 3.51. I'm not going to break down these match-ups any further. We have the advantage in zero of these games. Obviously, Garland is the one starter that we can get to, and we can touch up any of them if the offense is really clicking. But then you have to count on our guys and their tendency to try to extinguish fires with flame throwers.

Players to watch:

Vladimir Guerrero- Long story short with Vlady: he fucking kills us. I'm not exaggerating this. Since 2005, Vlad's hitting .382 with 8 homers and 34 RBIs against Baltimore with a .448 OBP/.676 SLG/1.124 OPS. That's sick. The only AL teams he hits better is Seattle (1.164 OPS) and Texas (1.356 OPS!!!). I'd say that it'd be a good idea to stay away from him, but I don't think I can possibly emphasize that enough. Do everything possible not to pitch to him. Seriously. Good Lord. On the year he's hitting .283 with 17 HR, 53 RBI, .342/.484/.826.

Torii Hunter- You might not have heard much about him this year, but the former Twin is having a fantastic season in... well, in Anaheimish. He's hitting .272 with 13 homers, 44 RBIs, and a .334/.458/.792 line. And he still plays a fantastic defense in center. Don't sleep on Hunter. He's a really good fastball hitter, and none of the Orioles' starters this series, save for Liz, have particularly good fastballs.

Howie Kendrick- The guy just flat out hits. Seriously. I'm not going to go into depth with him too much, because his stats do just about all the talking for him. He's hitting .341 with 3 HR, 32 RBIs, and a .361/.514/.875 line. He's got 23 doubles in 56 games. He hit .322 last year, so it's not exactly a fluke. The ONLY plus side to him is that he doesn't draw a lot of walks (he's got 5 in 208 ABs). At the same time, he doesn't strike out much either (37). He's a dangerous guy at the top of their line-up.

I could throw Chone Figgins in here just for the speed factor... but I won't. He's hitting .269 with an OBP of .368. He's got 17 steals in 24 chances this year. He can hurt you with speed, but he's not hitting well enough this year to have him as a top concern.

Oh, and there's that Francisco Rodriguez kid and his 42 saves out of 45 opportunities on the season. He's on pace to break Bobby Thigpen's record of 57 saves. And his ERA is just 2.18. If he comes into the game, it's pretty much over. Luckily, K-Rod's the best they have out of the pen. Jose Arredondo is impressing in his rookie season with a 1.33 ERA and 27 Ks in 27.0 innings (with just 9 walks). Justin Speier is used often (40.2 IP), but his 5.09 ERA shows that he hasn't been that reliable for them. Scot Shields has been reliable as their 8th inning guy, putting up a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 IP. Darren Oliver is the other reliable arm that they have, with an ERA of 3.30 in 43.2 IP.

Yeah, I think I'm going to be pretty thrilled if the O's can take a game from this series. Anything more than that, and I'll be really pleasantly surprised.