A Royal Pain

So yeah, after the massive letdown of Sunday's game, I'm understandably not feeling too supergreat about the upcoming series against Kansas City. KC's actually been playing really well lately. Since a June 13th loss against Arizona, the Royals have gone 11-3, with two of those losses coming in their last two days against St. Louis. Sure, they beat Colorado and San Francisco in that stretch... but 5 of those wins came against either Arizona or St. Louis. So they're not just beating up on weak competition. Regardless, they're not to be taken lightly. As this last series against the Nationals proved, you can't take a team lightly at all, period. So I'm troubled. The pitching match-ups are slanted towards the Royals. They've been hitting the ball well. Jose Guillen's going insane this year with the bat (in a good way... not in his usual psycho way). I'm worried about them. They're a better team than they're given credit for.

Pitching Matchups:
Brian Burres (6-5, 5.29 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (7-4, 3.40 ERA)
Radhames Liz (2-0, 5.70 ERA) vs. Luke Hochevar (5-5, 4.60 ERA)
Daniel Cabrera (5-4, 4.53 ERA) vs. Gil Meche (6-8, 4.66 ERA)
Garrett Olson (6-3, 4.76 ERA) vs. Kyle Davies (3-1, 3.34 ERA)

So yeah, a grand total of one pitching match-up (Olson vs. Davies) works out in the Orioles' favor, on paper. That's not good. Burres has looked terrible lately, while Greinke's put together (albeit very quietly) one of the best seasons in the AL (84 Ks, 33 BBs, 1.25 WHIP in 106.0 IP). Liz is... well, you never know what the hell you're going to get out of Liz. Hochevar, meanwhile, is a former #1 pick. He's been erratic this year (48 Ks, 36 BBs in 78.1 IP), but on any night he can turn it on. And Meche has been a stalwart in their rotation for the last two years. His numbers look fairly solid this year (82 Ks, 35 BBs, 1.32 WHIP in 102.1 IP), and he's capable of putting up a shut-down game up there as well. After an anemic performance against Jason Bergmann, I'm not really feeling the O's being able to touch up Greinke and Meche. They could reach Hochevar, but with Liz pitching... you just don't know. You just don't. Kyle Davies is a bit of a mystery for them and has a problem with walks, especially in the past (16 BBs, 15 Ks in 32.1 IP this year). But he's got a good arm. The same could be said for Garrett Olson, and that might be the other good chance to take a pitching match-up for the O's. The Royals are a tick behind the O's in staff ERA (4.41 ERA, good for 11th in the AL), and their bullpen is 10th in the AL with a 4.04 ERA (the O's are 3rd in the AL with a 3.15 bullpen ERA). The rotation isn't exactly a "strength" for the Royals (they're 10th in the AL with 4.59 ERA there, too), but they're significantly better than the Orioles' 4.99 rotational ERA (last in the AL). And the pitchers that the O's have to face are some of the best arms the Royals have. So if the rotation is shutting down the Orioles while the O's staff is struggling, the O's are going to have problems.

Offensively, the Royals don't wow you on paper. They're presently 13th in the AL in runs scored with 335 (the O's are 8th with 364). They're 8th in team batting average with a .262 team average, and 11th in team OPS with a .706 mark (the O's team OPS is .745, good for 7th in the AL). So on paper, they're a bottom of the league offense, and a bottom of the league pitching staff. But it's all about individuals and match-ups. The Royals have guys that can hurt you, and they're rolling out the heart of their rotation. Scary.

Guys to watch for:

Jose Guillen: Guillen's hitting .280 with 13 homers and 60 RBIs this year. He isn't a huge OBP guy (.305) but his .491 slugging percentage is stout (and adds up to a .796 OPS). He's been ridiculously hot lately, and has had a knack for knocking in the clutch RBI this season. So if there are runners on in late situations (pay attention to this, Flat Breezy), the O's would be wise to take special care in handling Guillen.

Alex Gordon: The second-year player hasn't put up quite the numbers people were expecting him to so far, but considering Gordon was being compared to Jesus Christ himself, it's a little unfair to criticize. He's only hitting .260, but he does have 10 homers (second on the team to Guillen's 13), 39 RBIs, and a .763 OPS (.342 OBP, .421 SLG). He knows how to work counts and take a pitch, and he's a guy that can hit a mistake a very, very long way.

David DeJesus: DeJesus, surprisingly enough, is leading the team in OPS (.897, good for a .377 OBP and a .480 SLG). He's hitting .316 with 8 homers and 41 RBIs thus far, and is probably the second biggest threat, stat-wise, in the line-up. He doesn't strike out often (30 in 256 ABs, compared to 22 BBs), does have some speed, and is generally a pest type of player, but with some pop. He's a guy that could very well find himself on the base paths all series, especially considering that the guys the O's are throwing out for this series have some documented control issues.

The Royals bullpen is incredibly formidable on the back-end of it, highlighted by Joakim Soria's 21/22 on save attempts, 1.29 ERA, and 37 Ks in 35 innings (compared to just 9 BBs). His WHIP is an incredible 0.77. He's not a guy that a lot of people know about, but he's pitched like a top-echelon closer this season. Ron Mahay is another guy out of the pen that's putting up a pretty solid season with a 2.23 ERA, 28 Ks, 18 BBs, 40.1 IP. His WHIP is sitting at 1.31, which isn't too terrible. He puts guys on base, but doesn't let them in. Sound familiar? Ramon Ramirez has a 2.82 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP (42 Ks, 15 BBs in 38.1 IP) so far this year, and is another guy that helps to bridge the gap to Soria pretty well. No one else out of the pen has pitched well, but any of these three guys are going to give the O's fits.

See, this is why I'm worried. After scoring 22 runs against the Cubs, the O's managed just 13 runs against the Nationals (allowing 8). And the pitching they'll face is significantly better than Washington's. Now, home has been good to Baltimore this year (22-12 on the season) and KC's just 18-24 on the road. So there are positive signs here. I see the O's splitting with the Royals this series, hoping to get back on track to take a few from Texas and finish the last home-stand of the first half on a positive note.