Bring On The Nationals!

I have to admit that I'm excited about this series. Maybe it's the fact that the O's just took two out of three from the best team in baseball. Maybe it's the fact that it's the Nationals, and over the homestand they're running "Nationals Conversion Night," conveniently placed when the region-sharing Orioles are going to be in town. Maybe it's the fact that I'm working on my third Rockstar of the day, so my caffeine levels (not to be confused with Midi-chlorian levels, although I believe I might be able to move things with my mind Jedi-style at this point) are pretty much through the roof. I'm not entirely sure. But I'm definitely stoked about this series, to the point that I just said the word "stoked."

After beating the Cubbies to the tune of 22-16 in Wrigley Field, is there anything we really need to be worried about facing the National League's bottom feeders (note: they would be baseball's bottom feeders if the Mariners could score runs)?

Well, sure. There are some guys on that team that could cause the Orioles headaches. Let's take a look.

Pitching Matchups:

Daniel Cabrera (5-3, 4.46 ERA) vs. Odalis Perez (2-5, 4.09 ERA)
Garrett Olson(!!) (5-3, 5.01 ERA) vs. John Lannan (4-8, 3.34 ERA)
Jeremy Guthrie (4-7, 3.64 ERA) vs. Jason Bergmann (1-5, 4.60 ERA)

Lannan's really the only pitcher on the Nationals that seems to be a decent bet to shut the O's down. He did so the last time the O's and Nats faced off, winning a tight 2-1 ballgame. And on the season he's struck out 55, walked 28, and has a WHIP hovering around 1.30. I'm not saying that he's a fantastic pitcher. But he's shut the O's down before, he's 13th in the NL in ERA, he does a reasonable job of keeping the ball in the yard, in a park that's difficult to hit homers out of. And he's facing Garrett Olson, who is easily the weakest of the trio going out to face the Nats this weekend (assuming the good D-Cab shows up). So if I'm picking one, I'm picking John Lannan. Perez and Bergmann are guys that the O's can touch up.

The Nats do have two relievers worth something as well. Jon Rauch has a 2.29 ERA and is the team's saves leader with 15. He's recorded 36 punch outs while walking just 5 batters on the season. If the O's have to see Rauch, they're going to have to hit him. Rauch doesn't give up free passes. He just doesn't. I just showed you the number. His WHIP's 0.89. What more do you want from me?!

Joel Hanrahan's ERA might be high (4.47), but the rest of the numbers look reasonable for a reliever. His WHIP is right in the 1.40 ballpark, and he's pretty good with the strike outs (57) while keeping the walks down (28). It's not impossible to touch him up obviously, but he's a guy the O's should be concerned with if he's coming out of the pen.

Offensively, the Nats just don't do a lot. I'm sorry. They just don't. Ryan Zimmerman is a guy that you have to pitch carefully to, even if he is having a down year. Sure, he's leading the team in homers... but that's a number equalling 8. Jay Payton is catching up to him. He's also hitting .257 and OPSing .718. Christian Guzman has revived his career, hitting .311 so far this year with 5 homers and 26 RBIs, posting a solid .766 OPS for a shortstop. If Nick Johnson is playing, the O's have to deal with an obscenely patient hitter. Even though he's hitting just .220, he does have 5 homers, a .415 OBP, and leads the team with a .846 OPS. Jesus Flores has an OPS over .840 (.294, 4 HR, 28 RBI in 136 ABs) in limited work this year. The guys that SHOULD scare you haven't done much at this point. Lastings Milledge does have 7 home runs, but he's hitting just .239, OPSing .671, and has struck out 52 times this year. Elijah Dukes is hitting .264 and OPSing .775, but only has 3 homers on the year. Austin Kearns has been awful (.561 OPS), Dmitri Young hasn't come near what he did last season (he's got a .744 OPS this year), and Ronnie Belliard's hitting .212. Keep an eye on Aaron Boone trying to ressurrect his career with his .773 OPS and 5 dingers.

Otherwise? Yeah, the Nats don't hit. They're dead last in Major League Baseball in runs scored, team batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. They're 26th in baseball with a team ERA of 4.61 as well. So yeah, to say the O's should at least take two out of three is an understatement.

Coming into this season, the O's and the Nationals, on paper, looked pretty even. After thumping the Cubs in their place and sitting two games over .500, the expectations have raised. This is, on paper, an inferior team. Anything less than two out of three has to be a disappointment.

BLOG NOTES: I'm going to be fairly busy on Saturday, so I can't promise a wrap-up after the game. I'll actually be attending the game in DC on Sunday (section 319, row F), so if you're going to be there, come find me. Otherwise, expect some pictures and a return to the usual shenanigans Sunday evening.