More Than a Feeling

Okay, I know that I missed last week's picks. I would've gone 4-0. Of course I would've. There's no evidence to the contrary... really, I would've picked Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego, and Minnesota last week. So 2-2. We're going to do better than that, though. I'm striving for perfection here.

Before I get to my thoughts about the upcoming weekend's slate of games, I have a couple of random thoughts about the week that was.

- Florida beat Oklahoma for the "National Championship."

If you want to call it that. Look, we kinda knew that Florida was going to beat Oklahoma (at least I did). The speed that Florida has is pretty incredible. Percy Harvin is a stunning athlete. He's probably going to be the second receiver off the board in April, and he deserves to be. Urban Meyer has designed that spread offense to get Percy Harvin the ball in 20 or 30 different ways, and even when you know it's coming, it's hard to stop. Even running at 80% last night, Harvin was the best player on the field. That includes Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford. And Harvin's not even the fastest guy on that team. Oklahoma hasn't played a team with THAT amount of speed and skill all season. Their defense hasn't been that great, either. Florida, meanwhile, brings it on defense as well. Maybe Oklahoma had a shot if DeMarco Murray was on the field. But he wasn't, and he's the closest thing to a Percy Harvin that Oklahoma has.

So it was pretty obvious that it was going to be a high-scoring, 62-41 affair, or something ridiculous like that. Think Oklahoma - Oklahoma State, but flip the script a bit.

No one expected Florida to win 24-14. And in all fairness, it was a semi-entertaining game. The game was contested throughout. Oklahoma kept it close. They bottled up Tebow for most of the game. Neither quarterback looked great. Bradford killed OU down the stretch. And Bob Stoops, probably the most overrated college coach, failed to make any adjustments whatsoever. Urban Meyer, one of the better college coaches (and not just at recruiting... the guy wins wherever he goes), made the adjustments at halftime. That was pretty much the game right there.

Keep something in mind, too. Tim Tebow didn't win the game for Florida. If I have to listen to one more fluff piece about Tim Tebow's drive and desire to win, I'm going to vomit. I get it. He's a fierce competitor. He's a leader. He also threw two picks against Oklahoma yesterday that came by him trying to force things. Percy Harvin did as much to win that game as Tebow did, and he's getting an eighth of the credit.

What sticks the wrong way for me is that this shouldn't have even BEEN the National Championship game. Utah deserves to be included. I know they're a Mountain West team. I know they "don't play anyone" like Florida does. But Utah beat TCU, Bringham Young, and Alabama. All three of those teams were ranked at the time, and ranked in the top-15. They also knocked off Oregon State (who handed USC their lone loss and was a game away from going to the Rose Bowl), Michigan in Ann Arbor, Air Force (a bowl team), and Colorado State (another bowl team). They beat Alabama more soundly than Florida did. The score may look close, but Alabama was in contention against Florida in the fourth quarter, and even led the game during the third. Alabama was trailing 21-0 after three possessions against Utah. No other team finished 13-0, and not many other teams had Utah's resume. This wasn't a typical weak non-BCS schedule. They played three ranked teams, and three other bowl teams.

What does this prove? It's impossible to win a National Championship if you don't play in the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, or Pac 10. That's not particularly the level playing field we hope for in college athletics (one of the things that makes college basketball pretty outstanding). Utah's state attorney general is looking at an antitrust lawsuit against the BCS, and even though I'm rather certain that it'll never make it to court or get squashed soundly if it gets there, they have a valid point. And perhaps it's the beginning of the groundswell needed to make the necessary change.

- Browns hire Eric Mangini to be their head coach.

Thank you, Cleveland, for totally screwing the pooch (pun intended) on this one. Think about how ass-backwards this was for a moment. Randy Lerner, owner of the Browns, hired Mangini without hiring a GM first. The General Manager's job is to do these sorts of things. They've got a generally (we're excepting Matt Millen here) keen eye for what it takes to run a football team. After all, in general, they're football guys. Randy Lerner isn't. What he's done is forced a General Manager to come in with a coach that he doesn't necessarily want and absolutely didn't sign off on. That has to make for a solid feeling of control and trust there.

And we're not even discussing the merits of Eric Mangini himself, which after the disaster that was the last month and a half of the New York Jets' 2008 season seem scant. Mangini was 23-26 as a head coach in New York. Sure, he took the 2006 Jets to the playoffs. The 2007 Jets, however, were a disaster. The 2008 Jets had the talent, especially after Tom Brady went down in week 1, to win the AFC East. And they were poised to do so, sitting pretty at 8-3. After a 1-4 finish, the Jets watched Miami and New England go right on by them. Full blame doesn't go on Mangini for it, because in all fairness Brett Favre played like dog shit down the stretch. Some of the blame goes there, though. When you're the captain of a sinking ship, you're pretty much forced into taking responsibility for it. Here's the thing, though: what exactly did Mangini do to convince ANYONE that he should be the first coach off the carousel? Lerner said that he was blown away by Mangini in his interview (that should have never happened in the first place). Really? Eric Mangini has the personality of a Popsicle stick. His offense isn't exactly dynamic. His defenses (keep in mind that Mangini was a defensive coordinator) were poor to slightly above average while in New York. And didn't Cleveland just have a ton of luck hiring a former defensive coordinator under Bill Belichick with Romeo Crennel? Nothing about this move made sense.

- Mark Teixeira wore a Yankees cap to Orioles games growing up...

... according to his press conference introducing him to the New York media. Yeah, screw you too, buddy.

On to the picks! (Home teams are in caps)

Ravens (+3) over TITANS

I'm not picking this way because I'm a biased homer. Really. I swear to God. Okay, maybe a little. I'm far from the only person picking this way, though. So if I'm wrong, we all go down together.

I get why people are picking Tennessee. Tennessee's had 13 days off, and the importance of that can't be understated. Couple that with Baltimore not having a week off since WEEK 2. The defense looked tired last week down the stretch. The Dolphins were moving the ball surprisingly well in the fourth quarter once they started going no-huddle and hitting short passes (and why NO ONE else figures this out any earlier than the fourth quarter besides Indy is beyond me). So there are definite factors to consider here, and the case can easily be made for Tennessee.

The thing is, that's really the way that the Ravens like it. I promise you, unfounded or not, this team runs the "No one respects us" angle into the ground. Think the team is upset that Harbaugh and Flacco didn't get any consideration in their Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year races respectively? This team plays best when they play with a chip on their shoulder. They have one. While Tennessee won the earlier meeting 13-10 in Baltimore, it was a game that the Ravens largely dominated. They were able to run the ball, and Tennessee found little success running the ball on Baltimore. That's not going to change. One team this season has been able to run on the Ravens. Tennessee's not going to break that trend. Especially not with Kevin Mawae likely out. The impact of that injury has been largely understated, so let me try to over-blow it. Mawae is one of the more athletic centers in the league. He's one of maybe three or four that are able to get outside and pull on a sweep or counter. That's essential for a guy like Chris Johnson to be able to gash the Ravens defense where it's actually vulnerable (outside the hash marks). Mawae is a 15-year veteran who's pretty much seen it all. Few things are surprising, to include the Ravens' controlled chaos defense. Leroy Harris, his back-up, is a 2nd year player who, it stands to reason, will have a much harder time with the Ravens' defense than Mawae would. Yes, I understand that Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosh will be back for this game, and that's great for Tennessee. But Mawae being out is pretty equivalent to either of those players being out. In fact, I think he might be more important to Tennessee's game.

Joe Flacco was instrumental in letting Tennessee back in the game in the first match-up. He threw two interceptions that game, and neither of them were on intelligent passes. They came with Flacco rolling out of the pocket trying to make something happen. Flacco's gotten a lot better when rolling out, and has learned how to chuck the ball away instead of forcing it into a dangerous situation. That turnaround right there is a HUGE factor in this game. The fact that he's a rookie on the road is overblown. Flacco doesn't get rattled. He handles himself like a veteran under center. And he has that first playoff game butterflies thing already out of his system. Joey Porter said before their playoff game last week of Flacco: "He's not a rookie anymore. He was in 2008. It's 2009 now." That's a pretty good summary of how far he's progressed. The Ravens should be able to run the ball enough to catch the Titans off guard on some play-action passes. It'll be a tight game, clearly low-scoring, but the Ravens should do just enough to win. And I'm personally guaranteeing at least one interception of Kerry Collins.

Pick: Ravens 16, Titans 9

PANTHERS (-10) over Cardinals

I hate taking a team laying 10 points. Even at home. Even against the Cardinals. But I can't ignore this. Arizona has been disgustingly bad on the road, going 3-5 outside of their sorta-dome. They're playing the only team that went undefeated at home this season in Carolina. Arizona was 16th against the run while Carolina was the league's third best run team. Carolina did a solid job stopping the pass this season (16th, compared to Atlanta's 21st rating), so they match up better against Arizona than Atlanta did. Carolina also doesn't have a rookie QB under center (I know, this is going against everything I just said about Flacco, but there's a difference in their coolness and even-keelitude). And they're not going to rely on one back to get it done against Arizona. They have two, and they're both home run threats.

Arizona did a fantastic job of resurrecting Edgerrin James for last week's game to throw off Atlanta (who clearly didn't bother preparing to stop the run). Carolina's not going to be caught off guard by it. They're a balanced, well-coached, well-prepared team who's had a week off to game plan for a team that's completely one-dimensional, is terrible on the road, and will be without Anquan Boldin. If I'm missing something here, please let me know.

Pick: Carolina 38, Arizona 21

GIANTS (-4) over Eagles

I thought about taking Philly. I did. I thought about it for a good long while. It's quickly becoming the sexy pick this week. After all, Philly already beat New York in Giants Stadium earlier this year. So they should know what they're getting into. And they're very, very familiar with what New York brings to the table. Add in the fact that Donovan McNabb looked like Donovan McNabb against Minnesota last week, and signs seem to point to Philly being able to pull out the upset this week.

Don't be fooled. It's a trap. Remember the circumstances that Philly beat New York in earlier this season. This was the game right after Plaxico's shenanigans became a full-blown distraction. New York's head wasn't in that game. That's pretty obvious. And while McNabb looks like McNabb again, and Brian Westbrook was effective last week... let's remember that Philly was having a tough time with Minnesota before Westbrook broke that run. Minnesota's quarterback last week was Tarvaris Jackson. Philly was having a tough time against a team that was QUARTERBAKCED BY TARVARIS JACKSON. Sure, they have that Adrian Peterson guy, too. But if Jackson isn't doing everything short of ripping off his Vikings jersey to show an Eagles jersey underneath before grabbing a steel chair and laying out Peterson last week, Minnesota wins that game. Easily. Philly was stifled all game until Westbrook broke that screen play. And they were being stifled by a defense without Pat Williams in the middle and Darren Sharper at safety.

Also, do you REALLY trust Andy Reid on the road to out-coach Tom Coughlin? The same Tom Coughlin that coached circles around Bill Belichick last year in the Super Bowl? It's Andy Reid. C'mon.

Philly's got an underrated defense and should limit the damage that the three-headed monster at running back is able to do. But the coaching difference and home-field advantage is tilted so firmly in New York's direction that I can't, in good conscience, pick Philly to win this.

Pick: New York 24, Philadelphia 14

Chargers (+6) over STEELERS

This is the other game that I went back and forth on for a long, long while. Like the New York - Philly game though, I just couldn't bring myself to take the Steelers laying 6 points. I think they'll win the game, don't get me wrong, but they won't cover.

I really want to pick San Diego to win outright, though. But here's the thing: aside from the Tennessee game this year, when can you remember a game that Pittsburgh didn't get some ridiculous break to win them the game? They've been stunningly lucky (and good) this season. They get every break. Especially at home. And as good as San Diego looked last week, San Diego also looked pretty bad last week. They were able to run the ball on Indy, but that's not uncommon. Indy's rush defense was 24th in the league this year. Pittsburgh's? They're sitting at #2, giving up just 80.3 yards per game on the ground. And before you think Philip Rivers is going to beat the Steelers through the air, keep in mind that Pittsburgh had the league's best defense against the pass, allowing just 156.9 yards per game through the air. This isn't Indy's defense they're facing here. It's the best defense in the league.

I know that San Diego's defense kept Peyton Manning contained last week, but San Diego's defense ALWAYS plays well against Indy (look it up). In reality, the Chargers sport the second worst pass defense and the 11th best rush defense. Pittsburgh can move the ball on them and stop the Chargers both on the ground and through the air. Again, am I missing something?

Rivers had a ton of pressure on him last week from Freeney and Mathis. Harrison, Woodley, and company should be able to force Rivers into some quick and errant throws. What worries me about Pittsburgh is Roethlisberger's health. The guy had his third concussion just two weeks ago. And we're not even talking about his motorcycle accident in 2006. What happens if San Diego gets a good shot on him and knocks him out early? Willie Parker's been next to invisible all season. Pittsburgh's usually a fantastic running team, but they haven't been this season. If Roethlisberger gets knocked out or gets gun-shy, it's going to be on their defense to win the game for them. Pittsburgh's is probably the only defense outside of the Ravens' that's up to that task.

In their last game, Pittsburgh won by 1 point, but it wasn't that close. San Diego gave up a ton of yards. They just kept Pittsburgh out of the end zone. There's not really any reason to think that it's going to be a dramatically different affair this time. San Diego looked good in the upset last week because they match up with Indianapolis really well. They don't match-up nearly as well as Pittsburgh. I think this is another low-scoring affair, I think Scifres (who had the greatest game a punter has ever had, and I won't hear differently) has another big game, but ultimately I think they fall just short.

Pick: Pittsburgh 13, San Diego 12

Defense Does The Talking: Ravens 27 - Dolphins 9

During the regular season, Miami committed just 13 turnovers. That tied for the fewest amount of turnovers in a 16-game season in NFL history (with the 2008 New York Giants, amusingly enough). While that was impressive, it was a turnover that doomed the Dolphins during the Ravens' 27-13 victory in their Week 7 match-up.

This time, it wasn't a turnover that doomed Miami. It was five of them.

Chad Pennington was intercepted by the Ravens four times, twice by Ed Reed, as the Ravens systematically took apart the Dolphins in a 27-9 victory that should solidify the Ravens as a frightening team during the NFL's second season, despite their 6th seed. Reed returned one of those interceptions for a 64-yard touchdown (with no laterals involved, surprisingly enough) as the Dolphins looked completely out of sync offensively for most of the middle portion of the football game. It wasn't until the 4th quarter (shock) that the Dolphins began to move the football, but by then the Ravens had widened the gap more than enough. Ronnie Brown notched the only touchdown for the Dolphins with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter to cut the lead to 20-9 (after Frank Walker came from nowhere to block the extra point). After that, like the Dallas game, Willis McGahee broke a big run to pretty much seal the deal.

Otherwise, the defense completely diffused the Dolphins' attack. The wildcat offense that Miami likes to run was neutralized yet again. Chad Pennington took more shots than he's accustomed to. The Miami running game was shut down early. Ronnie Brown managed just 19 yards on 12 carries. Ricky Williams managed just 17 yards on 4 carries. That forced Miami to become fairly one-dimensional, which plays right into the Ravens' hands. The defense, aside from the aforementioned 4th quarter, did what they needed to do by keeping plays in front of them. Pennington's not going to torch you deep (pretty much the Ravens' only weakness on defense this year), so the key was to keep Miami's receivers to a limited number of yards after the catch. Once Miami started to fall behind and Pennington got pressured, he started to force throws into lanes that didn't exist. That caused two interceptions by Reed, one by Leonhard, and one by Fabian Washington. And of course, Ed Reed is the one guy that you DON'T want to throw an interception to. Because once he gets his hands on the ball, the odds of him taking it to the house are pretty high. He hit .500 in that aspect. Keep in mind that Pennington had thrown just 7 interceptions all SEASON. He threw 4 today. You expected the Ravens to force a turnover or two in this game. Not five (the other came on a fumble by Patrick Cobbs that also led to Baltimore points).

Credit has to go to Joe Flacco as well, even if he didn't have his best game statistically. 9/23 for 135 yards is pretty ugly. The important number for Flacco, though, was the zero interceptions. In fact, the Ravens committed just one turnover all game (Le'Ron McClain fumbled on the Ravens' opening drive, which led to a Miami field goal). Number five continues to show incredible pocket presence for a rookie as well. He's vastly improved that aspect of his game as the season's progressed. He has a solid feel for the rush now, and knows how to buy time both by moving in the pocket and rolling out to escape pressure. He's not as prone to throwing the ball into traffic when being chased. That's a huge development for Flacco. It was probably the aspect of his game that needed the most work, as can be expected for a rookie quarterback. But Flacco continues to show that he's a fast learner. A large number of his incompletions came from either missing on the deep ball or throwing the ball away on the run. There was only one poorly thrown ball, a rocket to Heap that would've been intercepted by Yeremiah Bell had Akin Ayodele not batted the ball down. Otherwise, Flacco made fantastic decisions with the football. Put this into perspective: Joe Flacco became just the third rookie quarterback to win a playoff game, joining Shaun King of Tampa Bay and Ben Roethlisberger of that team with the logo on one side of their helmets. But neither of those guys won that playoff game on the road. And neither of them started all 16 games during the regular season to get his team into the playoffs, either. Matt Ryan, who (deservedly) won the NFL's Rookie of the Year, got bounced in his first playoff game after throwing 2 INTs. Flacco has a better supporting cast, but his impact shouldn't be understated. And now that Ryan's watching the playoffs from his sofa, count on Flacco getting more coverage and credit over the next week.

Finally, the Ravens were able to win the game by running the ball. No surprise there. Through most of the second and third quarters, the Ravens were able to gash Miami's 10th ranked rush defense right up the middle. Jason Ferguson missed the first game against the Ravens, when Miami gave up 140 yards on the ground. His return was supposed to help shut down the Ravens' rushing attack. It didn't. This time, the Ravens rushed for 151 yards. It wasn't McGahee that did most of the damage; it was McClain that ground out 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, with Willis chipping in 62 yards on 7 carries including a 48-yard burst to set-up the Ravens' final touchdown and effectively ice the game. Flacco contributed the other touchdown with his feet on probably the best play call of the night. On third and goal from the 5, the Ravens split out three wide and ran a QB draw that put Flacco into the end zone and drove the score to 27-9. Overall, the Ravens out-rushed the Dolphins 151-52. That was pretty much the story of the game right there.

There are still things that need fixing for next week. The Ravens' 4th quarter defense still looks completely different from the defense that shows up for the other three quarters. The pass rush completely fell off. When he was given time, Pennington was effective. When he was hurried, he turned the ball over. The Ravens seemed to have forgotten that for a stretch early in the 4th quarter. The defense is still vulnerable to the hurry-up offense. If someone figures this out early, Baltimore's in trouble. This is why it's a GOOD thing that Indianapolis is gone from the playoffs. No one else runs the hurry-up as effectively as Peyton Manning does. It still stands as the biggest weakness in the league's #2 defense. The crazy thing is that it's been a weakness in the defense for a long, long time. No one but the Colts seems to want to take advantage of that. Also, while it's Flacco's job to not lose the game (basically, it's his job to be Trent Dilfer), he needs to improve his accuracy next week. It's going to be very, very difficult to run the ball on the Titans. Especially with Albert Haynesworth plugging up the middle. Flacco's going to have to help beat Tennessee. His two interceptions in that game, aside from a horrible call in the 4th quarter, pretty much sealed the Ravens' doom that game. So Flacco has to be more consistent in moving the ball down field while not turning the ball over. He's been able to do that during most of the second half of the season, and that's been the big difference between the 2-3 Ravens and the 11-5 Ravens.

Solid game all around, though. Here's my Better Than Mike Preston Report Card for the game:

Quarterbacks: C+

Flacco held onto the ball, which is what he was asked to do. He only made one or two ill-advised throws and was able to avoid and evade pressure through the game, evident by Miami's inability to sack him. He needs to be more accurate on his throws, especially with the deep ball. He overthrew Clayton twice on plays that would have, at the very least, been huge first downs.


Offensive line: B+

Flacco didn't take a sack all game. Part of that was his ability to move and avoid the rush. But to be fair, the offensive line was a huge part of that. They were able to limit the Dolphins' penetration and pretty much took Jason Ferguson and Joey Porter out of the game. 151 rushing yards on a 4.6 yards per carry average shows that the line was able to get a consistent push. The line still needs to cut down on the penalties.


Wide Receivers: C

Mason had his usual solid game with 4 catches for 71 yards, leading both teams. The rest of this unit was completely invisible. Heap had just one catch and dropped a touchdown pass in the first quarter. While Clayton's been huge over the last few weeks, he notched just 2 grabs for 16 yards and seemed to have trouble getting off the line of scrimmage.

Running Backs: A

They did what they were asked to do. McClain ground out his usual game by pounding out 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while wearing out the Dolphins' defense. That allowed McGahee to bust a big run late in the game that iced the game. That formula's worked well over the last three weeks or so. This unit has a huge task next week, but Ray Rice returning should help.

Defensive Line: B+

The line did a solid job of eating up Miami blockers while getting enough penetration to hurry Pennington into throws. For the most part, they kept containment and didn't allow Dolphins' runners to break to the outside. The unit looked winded in the fourth quarter as the pass rush fell apart. They also missed on some tackles in the backfield, and allowed Pennington to escape from a sack or two.


Linebackers: B+

This unit said hello to Chad Pennington quite a bit through the game. Suggs picked up a sack, but was in on hurries continuously. The Dolphins were held to 52 yards rushing, and this unit was a huge reason why. Bart Scott's hit on Pennington in the third quarter was absolutely punishing. They started to whiff on tackles down the stretch, and seemed to have a hard time pursuing Dolphins runners on screen passes.

Defensive Backs: B

This is a tough grade. Yes, they picked up 4 INTs. Reed had two of them, including the touchdown return. That should be an A+, right? Well, again, this unit had a hard time covering the Dolphins in the 4th quarter. Fabian Washington and Samari Rolle don't tackle well, and that continues to be an issue. Frank Walker got hit with a silly penalty late. There were a few pass interference penalties that were unnecessary down the stretch as well. The safeties played outstanding, the corners were mediocre. Thankfully, there's not a high-powered passing attack in the AFC. The corners aren't great, but they can match up with Tennessee, Pittsburgh, or San Diego's wide outs.


Special Teams: A

Can't complain at all about this unit. Stover was perfect on field goals (two for two). Koch had two punts downed in the 20, and only really botched one punt by putting it into the end zone. Steve Hauschka was launching bombs from his foot on kickoffs, putting each kick deep into the end zone. The Dolphins settled for touchbacks more often than not. The coverage team, especially on punts, has been much improved. They're still giving up too many yards on kick returns, but in general this unit kept Miami from getting good field position throughout.

Fistbumps is back?

Yeah, it is. Okay, I know I went on hiatus a while ago. Like, July. And I'm not even going to pretend that I had some good reason to suspend it. I did my thing at Orioles Hangout, then the Orioles got painful to watch, then yeah... just lost interest for a while. But I'm going to try to actually do this the right way again. Because, mostly, it gives me something to do.

In all fairness, I never said WHEN Fistbumps would return. Just that it would. So in reality, I didn't lie. See? Loopholes are fun.

I'll be writing some stuff about the Ravens playoff game in the next day or so. I'll probably comment on the playoff games as a whole. You'll also get a Bill Simmons-like prediction column for next weekend's game. Because honestly, there's nothing better than plagiarism.

So yes, Fistbumps is back. For now. Hopefully for good, but one can never tell. You keep reading, I'll keep trying to pump out content. Or something resembling it.

Fistbumps on Hold

To my four or five loyal readers:

I won't be posting in fistbumps, at least not any game recaps, for the remainder of the road trip. Why? Well, because I'll be doing recaps for Orioles Hangout until the O's get back into town. So I'm not really going away. You can still get recaps from me. Just ones without any foul language.

The Most Fun I've Had With A Game Since Beating The Yankees 12-2: Orioles 13, Yankees 4

First off, a quick aside: Yeah, I didn't give you guys anything at all over the Angels series. And you got no series preview for the Yankees series. I had a busy, busy weekend. I went to the game on Friday, and was just running all over the place on Saturday and Sunday. I may not always do a great job of keeping this blog up and current, but damn it I try. ;)

But this is reader Drektunes' only place on the internet where he can cuss. And I'm not about to steal that ability from him. So I shall strive to keep this place updated more frequently. Except, possibly, the entire next week, where I may be posting elsewhere filling in. I'll let you all know.

Without further adieu, a big hearty "Fuck you" to the New York Yankees, Adam Jones style.

I mean, we knew we had a good match-up for this game, yes? Even though Jeremy Guthrie's struggled against the Yankees in the past, he's still been a fantastic pitcher this year. And Mussina's getting it done with smoke and mirrors at this point. He's lost velocity, he doesn't have an out pitch, he refuses to pitch righties on the inside half of the plate, mostly because he doesn't have the velocity to challenge them... say what you want, but Mussina's been fluky this year. He's not going to keep this shit up. If the Yankees do end up making the playoffs, I personally guarantee that Mike Mussina gets absolutely obliterated in a first round match-up. And hopefully, this happens in the clinching game of a series. It couldn't happen to a better mercenary. Anyway, how is Mussina 13-7 with a 3.56 ERA this year? He's walked 17 in 126.1 innings. That's a good start. Are you paying attention, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Brian Burres, and Daniel Cabrera? Good things happen to you if you don't walk guys. Look at Mussina! He's 39 fucking years old, is striking out 6 per 9 innings, and has given up 139 hits already this year. His fastball tops out at 87, and the best thing he's got is that curve. How is he doing it? He doesn't fucking walk guys.

Anyhow, let's get into the game. Hell, you know what? Screw it. Let's just get to the part where the Orioles started beating the Yankees around and made the most obnoxious fans in professional sports (don't worry Red Sox fans... you're catching up and will have that title soon enough). It all started in the 2nd inning, after Mussina escaped a very rocky 1st due to a bad decision by either Juan Samuel or Brian Roberts to try to score at home. Melvin Mora, who has literally been on fire this entire month and is somehow suffering now symptoms common with being aflame, led the inning off with a single. Luke Scottwalker followed him with a single of his own, and Mora made a... sit down first, what I'm about to tell you is very strange and possibly shocking... Mora made an intelligent base-running decision by going for third the entire way. Are you okay? Good, I'll continue. That put runners on the corners for Millar, with a grounder or a fly ball scoring a run. Millar decided that driving in a run wasn't fucking good enough, though. So he jacked a homer out to left field to put the O's ahead 3-0.

Ramon wasn't to be outdone, even if his "I drive a run home everytime J.D. is at a baseball game I play in" streak is over. He followed Millar's homer with a homer of his own to center field, in the deepest part of the stadium. Orioles 4, Yankees 0. Mussina would retire the next three batters to get out of the inning, but the damage had certainly been done.

And then things would quiet down for a while. Guthrie was SO good that the Yankees didn't even reach base off of him until the 4th, when Damon led off with a single. Not that it mattered because Jeter's double play wiped it off the board. He walked Abreu in the inning as well, but got A-Rod to ground weakly out to the catcher.

The Orioles would add onto the lead in the 5th. Roberts started the inning off with a double down the right field line. Adam Jones then crushed a triple to right-center to plate Roberts to expand the lead to 5-0. And as a quick aside, just watching Adam Jones this season has been an absolute joy. He's 22-years old. He's one of the better defensive center fielders in baseball already. The book on him earlier in the season was that you could fool him with a breaking pitch on the outside portion of the plate. He's stopped swinging at them. He waits for his pitch. Somehow in the time from April to July, Adam Jones has turned into a patient hitter that runs the count up and can be incredibly dangerous if you make a mistake. That's what I want out of my #2 hitter.

Kakes followed all this with a ground-out. Huffnpuff drove Jones in with a fly-out to center to put the score up to 6-0, and Mora grounded out to end the inning.

So, 6-0 in the 5th. Guthrie had allowed two base-runners all damn game. Mussina was certainly not coming out for the 6th. I mean, I've seen too many games fall apart this year to feel great about a 6-run lead... but I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel at least good about things. Guthrie mowed through the 5th inning pretty routinely (aside from hitting new Yankee Xavier Nady with a pitch, which was fun. Remember Nady? We saw him as a Pirate not long ago), and that brought things to the 6th inning. The inning in which the Orioles made a statement.

David Robertson, of the sub-2.00 ERA, came in to relieve Mussina, who clearly just wasn't doing his job well last night. Robertson's a young pitcher. Definitely has some upside. But... dude had a bad inning. Luke Scottwalker started off with a single that was just crushed down the right field line. Unfortunately, Bobby Abreu's got a really good arm and Scottwalker doesn't run fast... otherwise it would've been a double. Fortunately, Robertson felt badly that Scottwalker didn't get the double that he deserved, so he uncorked a wild pitch to advance him. Millar followed by slapping a ball to short that Mr. Perennial Gold Glove Derek Jeter could only dive and stop, so Millar reached on an infield single (Jeter barely stopped that ball, by the way, because he's actually a shitty defender with one of the worst ranges in the American League, but whatever... keep giving him awards he doesn't fucking deserve). With runners on first and second and no out, Ramon Hernandez did his duty of flying out to center to allow Scott to tag and move up, because Cabrera has nothing for an arm. Juan Castro followed and... well shit, he did the same fucking thing that Millar did. Sharply hit ball to short, Jeter dived for it, gloved it, couldn't transfer the ball from his glove to his hand, everyone safe. Scottwalker scored, Millar was safe at 2nd, Castro was safe at first. 7-0 Orioles. When Juan Castro's getting into the act... you're in trouble. Robertson had to regain his composure, or he was looking at a really, really long inning.

He didn't. He walked Roberts to load up the bases for... (I'm now switching to wrestling play-by-play voice, because the situation warrants it)

OH MY GOD!!! THAT'S ADAM JONES' MUSIC!!! HE'S GOT A BAT!!!!!! OH GOD!!! HE'S COMING FOR THE YANKEES!!! HE'S GOT NO BUSINESS HERE, GET HIM OUT OF HERE!!! (Adam Jones hits a grand slam off of David Robertson) HE JUST DEVISTATED ROBERTSON!!! HE'S STOMPING A MUD HOLE IN HIM AND WALKING IT DRY!!! HE'S CLEARED THE BASES, AND THE YANKEES ARE GETTING THE HELL OUT OF HERE!!! ADAM JONES IS A PURE PSYCOPATH, WITH NO FEELING AND NO SOUL!!! DAMN YOU, ADAM JONES!!!!

And we're back. 11-0 Orioles off of the first career grand slam by Jones, and just the second one hit by an Oriole all year. Oh, and I'd like to point out that the Orioles to this point, to borrow from Gary Thorne, had a 1-RBI homer, a 3-RBI homer, and a 4-RBI homer. So they were a 2-RBI homer from the elusive (I think) home run cycle. And Jones? He had the hardest two parts of his own personal cycle already taken care of. So yeah. Craziness. Edwar Ramirez would come on and get out of it, but I have no problem stating for the record that at 11-0, I felt damn good about the outcome of this game.

Guthrie finally allowed his first base-runner to reach 2nd base in the 6th inning, but worked out of a bases loaded, 2-out jam unscathed. The Yankees would finally reach the O's starter in the 7th, though. Xavier Nady followed a Robinson Cano strike out with a solo homer to deep center field to make it 11-1. That ended Guthrie's outstanding night with a line of 6.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 Ks. Lance Cormier (pronounced "Corm-wahh" from now on) came on in relief and... well shit, he let up more runs. Melky Cabrera reached on a Roberts error to put a man on and one out. Jose Molina doubled out to right to put runners on second and third, setting the stage for Johnny Damon to continue to try to kill the Orioles one game at a time. And he delievered by crushing a homer out to right field to make the game 11-4. Yeah, still a 7-run lead. I'm not worried. Cormier was pulled for the AMAZING RANDOR (just imagine it with an echo... it sounds awesome), who despite looking incredibly shaky, worked his way out of the inning. The highlight? Striking out Madonna Rodriguez to end the inning.

Unaware of the slaughter rule being in effect, the Orioles piled on a few more runs off of Kyle Farnsworth in the 8th. Roberts struck out, but Jonesy hit a single (leaving him a double shy of the cycle) to get a runner on. Markakis struck out, but Huffnpuff made up for that by hitting a homer down the right field line (literally... it hit the foul pole) to drive in two more runs, complete the home-run cycle, and give the O's a 13-4 lead.

That would do it. Jones would get another at-bat and hit a ball that looked like it was going to drop in for the double, but whatever scrub the Yankees threw into center field to give Melky Cabrera a break managed to track it down. Otherwise, the 9th was relatively uneventful. The Orioles walked out of Yankee Stadium last night with an impressive 13-4 victory. Now, honestly, is there anything as sweet as laying a 9-run beat down on the Yankees?

I Have a Worse Feeling...: Orioles vs. Angels

Remember where I said that I had a bad feeling about the Toronto series, and that I'd be thrilled with a series split, and then we went out and lost 3 out of 4?

Yeah. I've got a much, much worse feeling about this series.

The Los Angeles Angels of the Greater Orange County Metropolitan Area are coming into town for a 3-game set to end the 11-game homestand, and they're bringing with them the best record in the Major Leagues at 62-39. They also have the Majors' best road record at at 31-18. It's actually better than their 31-24 home record. I'm not making this shit up. They're really good.

Surprisingly enough, they're only 10th in the AL in runs scored, with 448 on the season. Their pitching is 6th in the AL with a 3.85 staff ERA. The starters are 3rd in the AL with a 3.79 ERA, while the pen is 10th with a 3.99 ERA. The O's, by the way, are 6th in runs scored and 12th in team ERA. So obviously, the pitching is severely slanted in the Angels' favor.

And before you get sick of hearing this a lot over the next three games, let me just warn you. The announcers are going to gush about the "pesky" Angels and their ability to "manufacture runs." And they're going to say that that's how they're winning their games... with their tenacity and heart. They're winning games because the pitchers are really good.

Anyway, here's the ridiculously unfair pitching matchups.

Pitching Matchups:

LHP Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.05 ERA) vs. LHP Brian Burres (7-6, 5.02 ERA)

RHP Jon Garland (8-6, 4.12 ERA) vs. RHP Radhames Liz (4-2, 7.19 ERA)

RHP Ervin Santana (11-4, 3.37 ERA) vs. LHP Garrett Olson (6-5, 6.11 ERA)

That's right. The average ERA for the three O's starters in this series is 6.10. For the Angels? 3.51. I'm not going to break down these match-ups any further. We have the advantage in zero of these games. Obviously, Garland is the one starter that we can get to, and we can touch up any of them if the offense is really clicking. But then you have to count on our guys and their tendency to try to extinguish fires with flame throwers.

Players to watch:

Vladimir Guerrero- Long story short with Vlady: he fucking kills us. I'm not exaggerating this. Since 2005, Vlad's hitting .382 with 8 homers and 34 RBIs against Baltimore with a .448 OBP/.676 SLG/1.124 OPS. That's sick. The only AL teams he hits better is Seattle (1.164 OPS) and Texas (1.356 OPS!!!). I'd say that it'd be a good idea to stay away from him, but I don't think I can possibly emphasize that enough. Do everything possible not to pitch to him. Seriously. Good Lord. On the year he's hitting .283 with 17 HR, 53 RBI, .342/.484/.826.

Torii Hunter- You might not have heard much about him this year, but the former Twin is having a fantastic season in... well, in Anaheimish. He's hitting .272 with 13 homers, 44 RBIs, and a .334/.458/.792 line. And he still plays a fantastic defense in center. Don't sleep on Hunter. He's a really good fastball hitter, and none of the Orioles' starters this series, save for Liz, have particularly good fastballs.

Howie Kendrick- The guy just flat out hits. Seriously. I'm not going to go into depth with him too much, because his stats do just about all the talking for him. He's hitting .341 with 3 HR, 32 RBIs, and a .361/.514/.875 line. He's got 23 doubles in 56 games. He hit .322 last year, so it's not exactly a fluke. The ONLY plus side to him is that he doesn't draw a lot of walks (he's got 5 in 208 ABs). At the same time, he doesn't strike out much either (37). He's a dangerous guy at the top of their line-up.

I could throw Chone Figgins in here just for the speed factor... but I won't. He's hitting .269 with an OBP of .368. He's got 17 steals in 24 chances this year. He can hurt you with speed, but he's not hitting well enough this year to have him as a top concern.

Oh, and there's that Francisco Rodriguez kid and his 42 saves out of 45 opportunities on the season. He's on pace to break Bobby Thigpen's record of 57 saves. And his ERA is just 2.18. If he comes into the game, it's pretty much over. Luckily, K-Rod's the best they have out of the pen. Jose Arredondo is impressing in his rookie season with a 1.33 ERA and 27 Ks in 27.0 innings (with just 9 walks). Justin Speier is used often (40.2 IP), but his 5.09 ERA shows that he hasn't been that reliable for them. Scot Shields has been reliable as their 8th inning guy, putting up a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 IP. Darren Oliver is the other reliable arm that they have, with an ERA of 3.30 in 43.2 IP.

Yeah, I think I'm going to be pretty thrilled if the O's can take a game from this series. Anything more than that, and I'll be really pleasantly surprised.

What a Rough Two Days: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 1; Blue Jays 7, Orioles 1

Well then.

I went to both of these games. That included Wednesday's hurricane that decided to pass over the city, bringing with it frequent lightning, high winds, and heavy torrential downpour rains. Yours truly was sitting outside, getting drenched, risking life and limb in hopes that they would be able to get the game in (okay... I was really sitting in the Camden Club getting drunk, but whatever... don't question me). They didn't. They postponed the game around 11 PM, and announced that they were finishing the game on Thursday morning at 12:05 PM, and then play out the game that was originally scheduled on Thursday.

Following? Games got rescheduled, and I'm a liar. Good.

It's a shame, too. The game on Wednesday night was really good, all 6 innings of it. Burnett and Guthrie were both on their games. The Blue Jays struck first in the 3rd inning, after Guthrie let Lind lead off the inning with a single. Lind stole second because Ramon can't throw runners out, and for no other reason at all. Lind isn't a swift runner. John McDonald, of the sub-.200 average, singled to move Lind over to third. Joe Inglett grounded out to move McDonald over to second and put a big out up on the scoreboard. After him, Marco Scutaro performed the dreaded ground-out RBI to perfection, grounding to second and allowing Lind to score on the play. Guts would get Rios to ground out to end the inning.

The O's tied it in the 4th after Huffnpuff smashed a triple (yes, a triple... yes, THAT Aubrey Huff) to left-center that Inglett sorta-kinda misplayed. Mora hit a ball to short, and for some reason McDonald took his sweet time getting the ball to first... long enough to allow Huff to score and Mora to reach on an infield single. After that? Scottwalker flied out to left, Millar fouled out to first, and Mora was picked off of first and caught in a rundown. Way to keep the rally going and all.

It was about at this point that the clouds rolled in. Really dark, really puffy clouds. Lightning started flashing in the sky, but it wasn't reaching the ground (what most people call "heat lightning"... what us weather dorks call "cloud to cloud lightning"). It provided for a really interesting backdrop. It was really obvious that both teams were needing to score to try to win the game and not have the game made up. The Blue Jays would be the team that would strike in the 6th as the raindrops started falling. Rios singled to center, and then stole second because Ramon can't throw out base-runners... especially good ones. Lyle Overbay cashed that run in by singling to center... and then he advanced to second on the throw to the plate. Barajas would ground out to short to move Overbay over, and Stairs would ground out for the second out in the inning. Scott Rolen came up, took a ball, then the sky opened up, big time.

And that... well, that was that for Wednesday night. And it ended the game for Guts and Burnett. Guthrie pitched pretty well, too. He went 5.2 innings, letting up 2 runs on 6 hits while striking out 4 and walking just one. Burnett went 5 innings giving up a run on 6 hits, but he struck out 7 and walked no one. You're not reading this wrong. A.J. Burnett didn't walk anyone.

I didn't want to miss the completion of a 2-1 game in the 6th, and hey... I got a game and a half for the price of one on Thursday... so I played hooky from work and bought myself a ticket. Front row, section 16. Boss tickets. Anyway, Lance Cormier came in to start the Thursday portion of the game and got that Scott Rolen guy out... that at bat took FOREVER.

Meanwhile, the Toronto pen pretty much shut the Orioles up. Seriously. I already told you that the final was 5-1. Cormier pitched the 7th okay, but ran into trouble in the 8th. Lyle Overbay started the inning off with a double. He got an out forcing Barajas to pop up, then the Orioles decided to walk Stairs intentionally to set-up the double play. But would they let Cormier get it? Nope. They brought in the Amazing RANDOR (there's a Star Wars Rancor joke somewhere in there...). And I can't really blame Randor Bierd for what went wrong. I blame Fat Millar.

Lind grounded to first, and Millar fielded the ball cleanly. He had plenty of time to beat a slow Overbay to the plate with his throw, so of course Millar calmly set his feet and fired to home, right? Nope. Of course not. He rushed the throw and airmailed it over Ramon's head. Overbay scored easily, and Stairs (who is the epitome of slow) tried scoring from second. All Ramon had to do was throw cleanly to Bierd... but of course, Ramon's throw was off line as well, Stairs scored, and The Jays took a 4-1 lead. John McDonald would hit a sac fly to drive in the third run of the inning before Bierd would work out of it.

Yeesh. Nothing happened after that, the Orioles couldn't hit Carlson, Camp, or Downs. It seemed like anytime that the O's got a scoring chance, someone grounded into the double play. Just an awful way to finish off a pretty solid game.

Game 2 got ugly. Real ugly. I mean, you figured it might with Halladay, who is nigh unhittable, facing off against D-Cab, who is pulling his Jekyll and Hyde routine again this year. Well, Hyde showed up.

The O's best chance against Halladay came in the first. Roberts led off with a single, but Jones followed with a pop-up. Markakis struck out for the second out, but Huff came through with a single to move Roberts over to third. Mora? He politely grounded out to second. End of inning.

Cabrera actually managed to match Halladay... until the 3rd. He started things off magnificently by hitting Inglett in the shoulder with a 94 MPH fastball. Inglett stole second off of guillermoquiroz' Ramon Hernandez impression, then advanced to third on a Scutaro single. Leave it to Daniel to make things easy... he uncorked a wild pitch that allowed Inglett to score pretty easily, putting the Jays up 1-0. Rios flew out for the first out, but that Overbay guy came through with another RBI, a single this time, to score Scutaro and put the score at 2-0. Danny got Stairs to fly out before striking out Rolen to end the inning, but against Halladay and the way that Halladay was getting grounders... the impression that I got at the game was that a 2-0 hole was going to be really difficult to climb out of.

The Orioles decided to just keep on digging that hole, though. In the 4th, Lind (who just murdered us all series) started off with a double. Brad Wilkerson smacked a single to right to score Lind, though Wilkerson was nice enough to run himself into an out trying to advance to second. 3-0 Jays after the 4th. Deeper hole achieved.

Oh, but it got worse. The Jays would add a run in the 5th off of an Overbay sac fly. Then they blew the game open in the 6th. Rolen led the inning off by hitting a single. Lind, of course, hit another single to put runners on first and second. Danny threw ANOTHER wild pitch to move the runners over, but it didn't matter since he just went ahead and walked Wilkerson anyway. Then Rick Dempsey's Nephew (Gregg Zaun) singled to right-center, pushing Rolen and Lind across to stretch the lead to 6-0. Scutaro would tack on a sac fly to put it to 7-0, and with Halladay not having thrown many pitches to that point, what I should have done was get up and walk out of the stadium. But I didn't. I have the sunburn to prove it.

Anyway, I don't really care how the O's managed to score their run. They fucking lost 7-1 and 5-1 on the same day. Ramon? He didn't play in the second game, but he failed to drive a run home in either half of the first game, which ended his streak of "driving in a run in games that J.D. attends" at 8. It was nice while it lasted. At least I have the memories. Who's this Ramon guy again?

That also drops my season record to 6-6. One day and I sink back to .500. Which was a better day than the O's had, sinking to 5 games under .500 at 48-53. Ouch. Did I mention that Toronto (51-51) isn't exactly a wonderful team? Yeah, but they still came into the Yard and took 3 out of 4. That's rough. And the Los Angeles Angels of the Greater Orange County Metropolitan Area are coming in for a 3-game set starting tonight, bringing the best record in baseball with them. So it's not like it's getting any easier.

At least this is happening shortly before the trade deadline. Maybe they'll move some pieces and continue the rebuilding thing after all.